Macro outlook

Discussed yesterday with a friend about the outlook for the next few months. Recession has already showed its face in the US. Though the actual situation may not as bad, it is the perception caused by the subprime problem that everything is not ok with the finance firms, which will hit and cause further damage. India has to face major problem due to the inflation which is primarily due to the high international commodity prices. My friend thinks that commodity prices will correct by 20%, though I feel that oil prices would not yield so soon and we could still see higher levels.
The 4th quarter results being announced already show a slowing of the growth, except for the telecom sector which has shown good growth. The margins though seem threatened even in that sector. We can see couple of tough quarters, but I am still optimistic about India's performance in the long term.